Isaiah Webster

Category: POLITICS

Bernie’s a liar. There will be no contested convention. Here’s why…

Bernie Sanders

Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders made news yesterday, when he asserted that next month’s Democratic National Convention would be “contested.” According to Sanders, neither he nor Hillary Clinton will have enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination — and since unpledged delegates (aka super-delegates) do not vote until the convention — the entire event will be “contested.”

That’s a lie.

To be fair, I don’t think Sanders lied intentionally, I just think he misunderstands what a contested convention actually is. The purpose of a political convention is to pick the leader (nominee) of said political party. Generally speaking, whoever receives a majority of all delegates gets the nomination. On the initial ballot, if any candidate gets a majority of all delegates, the process is over and the nominee is established. If no candidate gets a majority on the first ballot, then the convention is said to be “contested” — meaning that a candidate needs to build a coalition of delegates to reach a majority. Contested conventions are only likely when three or more candidates have a significant number of delegates.

Hillary Clinton will end the primary process with more popular votes, more pledged delegates, more super-delegates, and more states won. On the first ballot, all of her delegates will cast their vote for her. Because of this certain fact, there is zero chance that the convention will be contested.

Finally, there is another reason why we know the convention won’t be contested. Sanders and Clinton are the only two candidates with any delegates to the 2016 Democratic National Convention. With only two people on the ballot, it’s mathematically impossible that someone won’t get a majority on the first ballot. Think about it: The overall number of delegates is an odd number; so with only two options, someone will have a majority once all delegates vote.

Bernie Sanders has a lot great qualities, but math and logic aren’t among them.

Beware the real Donald Trump

Bitter bitches need to back off on Hillary’s hot sauce

HIllary ClintonOver the weekend, Hillary Clinton mentioned that she carries hot sauce in her purse, and the Twitter trolls pounced, claiming that she simply said such to pander to Black voters in New York. The accusation is that since Beyoncé popularized carrying hot sauce with her hit single, “Formation,” that Clinton must be co-opting it just to score political points.

But here’s the gag…Hillary’s been saying this since the 1990s. Since before Beyoncé’s career began!

Hillary has talked at length about how she loves red peppers and hot sauce, and usually carries both — as she believes they help keep her healthy. Here’s a New York Times article on the subject in 2008. Here’s another article on the subject from Traveler in 2012. Here’s a Slate article on the subject in 2015.

It takes about two minutes on Google to determine that Hillary’s recent comments aren’t pandering, but rather a continuation of something she has discussed publicly for many years. Unfortunately, when it comes to smearing Hillary Clinton, even basic facts are tossed aside in favor of snide comments and insults.

Every bitter bitch bashing Hillary Clinton over this should SHUT THE FUCK UP.

Paul Ryan, Speaker & Evil Genius

PAUL RYANLast week, House Speaker Paul D. Ryan went to the headquarters of the Republican National Committee to definitively announce that he would not — under any circumstances — accept his party’s 2016 presidential nomination.

At face value, this declaration seems laughable, since Ryan said the exact same thing about the speakership prior to becoming House speaker. But in this case, Ryan is telling the truth. He knows that who won’t be his party’s nominee in 2016 because that wouldn’t be politically smart. And more than anything else, Ryan is politically savvy.

Though Ryan’s intellect is obvious and well-documented, it’s also under-appreciated. He might be among the smartest politicians of his generation.  At the relatively young age of 46, he has already reached what would be the pinnacle of any average political career — Speaker of the House of Representatives. At 42, he nearly became vice president of the United States. He’s also previously served has chairman of two powerful House committees — Ways and Means; and Budget.

Speaker Ryan is young enough to play the long game — even he is waits 20 years, he could still run for president and be younger than Hillary Clinton is now.

But his youth is a mere advantage; it’s not the reason he is waiting. Ryan is smart. And he can see that his political party is going through rapid transformation. The rise of Donald Trump within the Republican Party is the final phase of a realignment that began with the defeat of President George H.W. Bush in 1992. Since that critical election, the party has been searching for its next Reagan. The presidency of George W. Bush was almost a period of happenstance during an era that was dominated by Democrats at the presidential level.

Trump’s pending nomination and guaranteed defeat in the general election will destroy the Republican Party as we know it, and usher in a new version of the GOP.

Speaker Ryan can see this coming a mile away. He is smart enough to know that the 2016 presidential election is already lost. The Senate might be lost, too. The speaker’s primary goal now is to salvage his House majority and remain the undisputed future leader of the party itself. Ryan knows party stalwarts like Mitch McConnell, 74, are nearing their political sunsets; all he must do is wait patiently for his moment to arrive.

The Trump implosion might be severe enough to wipe out McConnell and a slew of Republican governors. The House of Representatives is so gerrymandered that it’s probably safely Republican until at least 2020.  Speaker Ryan is likely to survive this election year, and begin immediately rebuilding the party in his own image. All of his would-be rivals for the Republican nomination — Christie, Kasich, Rubio, Walker — ran and lost in the 2016 primary. Their collective failure make them lesser threats now and in the future.

So no, Paul Ryan isn’t running for President this year. That would be foolish. The smart move would be to watch the entire party go down in flames in 2016, and emerge as its next great savior. Such a devilish plan would be befitting the evil genius of Paul Ryan.

Bernie only has one problem: Mathematics

2f9ca116e0dbf5c5c4701a72f1bafeb30f5cdc3fIn the 2016 race for the Democratic nomination for president, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders really only has one problem: Mathematics.

As the dust settles on Super Tuesday, two mathematical points that will eventually doom Sanders have become crystal clear. First, the insurgent presidential candidate has almost no support among Black voters, and very limited support among Latinos. Secondly, because of the proportional allocation of delegates in the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton has already built an insurmountable lead.

As it pertains to people of color, Sanders doesn’t need to win Black and Latino voters, he just needs to keep the margins respectable. As it turns out, that’s easier said than done. On Super Tuesday, Clinton received more than 70% of the Black vote in every state. Every state. In Arkansas and Alabama, she received more than 90% of the Black vote. These aren’t wins; these are epic blowouts. In Texas, Clinton beat Sanders among Latino voters by 40 points! When you consider how many Latino voters there are in Texas, any double-digit win among them usually signals an electoral rout. (Clinton won Texas, 65% – 33%.)

No matter how much Sanders claims to be leading a “political revolution,” no one can win the Democratic nomination while performing so poorly among people of color. Moreover, Sanders’s inability to keep the margins closer truly calls into question his entire candidacy.

By contrast, Clinton either wins the White vote (as she did in Massachusetts) or she keeps the margins respectable (as she’s done in all the Southern states).

Demographics alone would eventually sink any chance Sanders has to win the nomination. However, he also has a very unforgiving delegate math problem.

In terms of pledged delegates, Clinton now leads 596-399. A candidate needs 2,383 delegates to win the nomination, but since delegates are awarded proportionally, even a modest deficit is hard to overcome. In fact, if Clinton narrowly lost every state from here on out — she would still win enough delegates to clinch the nomination. Because of the proportional allocation process, Sanders would need to defeat Clinton by huge margins — similar to how she has beaten him in the South.

But here’s the real problem: there are a ton of states remaining on the calendar that favor Clinton. Louisiana, Mississippi, Maryland, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Illinois, New York and Pennsylvania have yet to vote. Almost all of these states have high concentrations of Black and/or Latino voters. If Clinton just breaks even among these states, she easily wins the nomination. And if her performance up to now is any guide, many of these states will be blowout wins for her.

No matter how you look at it, Team Sanders has a serious math problem that will eventually end its bid for the presidency. You could argue that these math problems have already ended Sanders’s bid for the presidency. No matter what Bernie Sanders says in the days ahead — nothing he can do from this point forward will add up to a win.